The possibility of anticipating change

External forcings include natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun's output. Radiative forcing is a measure of how various factors alter the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere.

The possibility of anticipating change

In addition, wider raids gave aircrew experience of day and night navigation, and tested the defences [33]. The change in emphasis of the bombing from RAF bases to bombing Londonhowever, turned Adlerangriff into a short-range strategic bombing operation.

The effect of the switch in strategy is disputed. Some historians argue the change in strategy lost the Luftwaffe the opportunity of winning the air battle, or air superiority.

If British losses became severe, the RAF could simply have withdrawn northward and regrouped. It could then deploy when, or if, the Germans launched an invasion.

What we do

Most historians agree Sea Lion would have failed regardless, because of the weaknesses of German sea power compared to the Royal Navy. Aircraft of the Battle of Britain The track record of the Luftwaffe against naval combat vessels up to that point in the war was poor.

In the Norwegian Campaigndespite eight weeks of continuous air supremacy, the Luftwaffe sank only two British warships. The German aircrews were not trained or equipped to attack fast-moving naval targets, particularly agile naval destroyers or Motor Torpedo Boats MTB.

The Luftwaffe also lacked armour-piercing bombs [38] and had almost no aerial torpedo capability, essential for defeating larger warships. The Luftwaffe made 21 deliberate attacks on small torpedo boats during the Battle of Britain, sinking none.

Possibility Change

The British had between and small coastal craft MTBs, Motor Gun Boats and smaller vesselsmaking them a critical threat if the Luftwaffe could not deal with the force.

Only nine destroyers were sunk by air attack inout of a force of over operating in British waters at the time. Only five were sunk while evacuating Dunkirkdespite large periods of German air superiority, thousands of sorties flown, and hundreds of tons of bombs dropped.

The Luftwaffe's record against merchant shipping was also not impressive: It sank only one in every British vessels passing through British waters inand most of this total was achieved using mines. This was a secret weapon which would have been used to blackout the electricity network in south-east England.

The equipment for dropping the wires was fitted to the Bf aeroplanes and tested. It involved dropping wires across high voltage wires, and was probably as dangerous to the aircraft crews as to the British. The Kriegsmarine, already numerically far inferior to Britain's Royal Navy, had lost a sizeable portion of its large modern surface units in April during the Norwegian Campaigneither as complete losses or due to battle damage.

In particular, the loss of two light cruisers and ten destroyers was crippling, as these were the very warships most suited to operating in the Channel narrows where the invasion would likely take place.

Although the Royal Navy could not bring the whole of its naval superiority to bear—as most of the fleet was engaged in the Atlantic and Mediterranean —the British Home Fleet still had a very large advantage in numbers.

It was debatable whether British ships were as vulnerable to enemy air attack as the Germans hoped.

The possibility of anticipating change

During the Dunkirk evacuationfew warships were actually sunk, despite being stationary targets. The overall disparity between the opposing naval forces made the amphibious invasion plan extremely risky, regardless of the outcome in the air.

In addition, the Kriegsmarine had allocated its few remaining larger and more modern ships to diversionary operations in the North Sea.Paul Auerbach, MD, is the Redlich Family Professor in the Department of Emergency Medicine at the Stanford University School of Medicine, and Adjunct Professor of Military/Emergency Medicine at the F.

Edward Hébert School of Medicine of the Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences. In summary, drivers have to adapt their attentional search to the possibility of anticipating dangers according to the environment and the necessity of anticipating them .

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Summary | Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises | The National Academies Press