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The 20 year Japanese bear market in real estate is making its way to the United States. Home prices in the U. Lower paying jobs, higher expenses, shadow inventory, and big government spending all align with a path of real estate malaise.
What if real estate prices remain the same for another decade? As I look at economic trends in our nation including the jobs we are addingit is becoming more apparent that we may be entering a time when low wage jobs dominate and home prices remain sluggish for a decade moving forward.
Why would this occur?
It is probably useful to mention that the Case-Shiller 20 City Index has already hit the rewind button to and many metro areas have already surpassed the lost decade mark in prices. This is the aftermath of a bubble. Prices cannot go back to previous peaks because those summits never reflected an economic reality that was sustainable.
A chart comparing both Japan and U. Pragmatic Capitalism This chart does a simple comparison of Osaka condo and Tokyo condo prices which does not reflect the entirety of the Japanese housing market. Yet the path seems very similar. Large areas with a real estate frenzy that hit high peaks and have struggled ever since.
In fact, if we look at nationwide prices we realize that Japan has seen a 20 year bear market in real estate: Japan urban land prices are back to levels last seen in the s.
You have to ask if there are parallels to our current condition. The first point we all have to agree on is that both economies had extraordinarily large real estate bubbles.
For the United States the answer to this assumption is a big yes. We can run off a check list of how our real estate markets run similarities: Our Federal Reserve followed a more aggressive path than Japan in bailing out our large banks. Yet all this did was make the too big to fail even bigger and exacerbated underlying issues in our economy.
Four full years into the crisis and we are still dealing with a massive amount of shadow inventory. Remember the initial days when the talk was about working through the backlog of properties in a clean and efficient manner?
Whatever happened to that? Banks operate through balance sheet accounting and it has made more sense to pretend the shadow inventory has somehow maintained peak prices while chasing other financial bubbles in other sectors. Not a hard way to make money when you can borrow from the Fed for virtually zero percent.
The above chart may not seem like a big deal to some but keep in mind the United States had never witnessed a year over year drop in nationwide home prices since the Great Depression.
Not only has that been surpassed but home prices are now back to levels last seen 8 years ago. The lost decade is now nipping at our heels but what about two lost decades like Japan?
Debt Watch Blog For some this may seem outrageous even to consider. The way I see it is that Japan was quickly catching up U. This was solidly the number two global economy for many years until China took that place last year.
Yet the real estate bust has really been a drag on the economy for years moving forward: Why has real estate been such a drag on the overall Japanese economy? One third of Japanese workers operate under this new world. Relatively low security with employers and this has spiraled into lower income and money to finance home purchases.
The fact that the U. I think this is a key point many in the real estate industry fail to emphasize. How can home prices remain inflated if incomes are moving lower?Online Application Form. The Master of Science in Sustainability programme is a two-year programme, which provides students with the knowledge and practical skills necessary to contribute to solving challenges of sustainability.
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